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Celtics vs. Bucks prediction, odds, line: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Game 6 best bets from model on 86-58 run

The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks series has rocked back-and-forth since its start, with alternating victories going to each team through the first five games. For Game 6, Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo looks to come away with a third 40-point performance in the series after doing so for the second time on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Boston’s Jayson Tatum has led his team in scoring, but has shot below 40 percent from the field for the series. Both stars will be gearing up for a breakout performance, but the Bucks lead things 3-2 with a chance to wrap things up at home.

Tip from the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee is set for 7:30 p.m. ET, where the Bucks are 3-2 so far during the playoffs. Caesars Sportsbook lists Milwaukee as one-point favorites, while the over-under, or total points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 212.5 in the latest Celtics vs. Bucks odds. Before you make any Celtics vs. Bucks picks or make any NBA predictions, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the fourth full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. Bucks, and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Bucks vs. Celtics:

Celtics vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -1Celtics vs. Bucks over-under: 212.5 points Celtics vs. Bucks money line: Bucks -120, Celtics +100BOS: The Celtics are 6-3 against the spread in playoff games MIL: The Bucks are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games

Featured Game | Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics

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Why the Celtics can cover

Boston is 3-1 on the road overall during the 2022 playoffs, and won by eight points when the two sides last met in Milwaukee on Monday. Antetokounmpo scored 42 points and the Celtics still won convincingly. Ahead of Game 5, there was some optimism that Celtics center Robert Williams III could return from a knee injury that held him out of Game 4, but that didn’t end up happening. He’s a game time decision again on Friday, but if he is able to play, he would boost Boston’s efforts on the glass. On Wednesday, the Celtics outscored Milwaukee 50-44 in the paint, but lost the rebounding battle, 49-36.

Critical for Boston’s chances of keeping things close is the continued absence of Khris Middleton for Milwaukee. He’s been out since Game 3 in the first round against Chicago, and without him, Jrue Holiday and Wesley Matthews are the next-best scoring options for the Bucks, but neither is shooting over 35 percent from the field in the series.

Why the Bucks can cover

Milwaukee’s defense is fantastic, as evidenced by its statistical profile in the NBA playoffs 2022. The Bucks lead the postseason in defensive rating, with opponents scoring only 100.9 points per 100 possessions across two rounds. Milwaukee also leads the NBA playoffs in defensive rebound rate (80.4 percent), field goal percentage allowed (41.9 percent) and free throw attempts allowed (17.6 per game), with opponents also shooting only 32.5 percent from 3-point range. In the regular season, the Bucks landed in the top five of the league in defensive rebound rate, free throw prevention and points allowed in the paint, with upper-tier marks in field goal percentage defense and fast break prevention. 

Offensively, the Bucks were in the top five of the NBA in efficiency this season, and Milwaukee has the best player on the floor in Antetokounmpo. Headlined by a 40-point effort in Game 5, Antetokounmpo is the leading scorer in the postseason, averaging 31.1 points per game, and he adds 13.0 rebounds and 6.6 assists per contest to go along with elite-level defense and overall versatility.

How to make Celtics vs. Bucks picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, with 10 players projected to score in double-figures in the simulations. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s Bucks vs. Celtics Game 6 pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Celtics vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Celtics vs. Bucks spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.

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Krzysztof Stanowicz

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